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The major idea is that the United States accounts for a large portion of the world's incarcerated population, more than its share of people overall. Roughly two million people are behind bars in the United States, while the global total of incarcerated people is about eight to ten million. Do the math and you get about a quarter (roughly 20–25%) of the world’s incarcerated population in the United States. That’s why the statement is considered true—it's an accurate, approximate figure that reflects the real distribution, even though the exact percentage changes from year to year and depends on what counts as incarceration (prisons and jails versus other forms). Not sure isn’t appropriate because credible data supports this approximate share, and saying it varies by year is a nuance, but the general point—about a quarter—is well established.